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New Model of Forest Succession at UMBS

Project Abstract: 
We seek to create the capability to map and model forest succession and biomass outcomes at the UMBS under different scenarios of climate change (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate projections) and under forest health pressures (absence of fire and the currently devastating beech-bark disease). For modeling, we will use LANDIS-II, regional landscape modelling package, co-developed for upper Great Lakes forests by the US Forest Service. This model has not previously been parameterized for UMBS ecosystems at the landscape scale. We will also use remotely sensed and field data. Our expected outcomes are: 1) a new map of forest age cohorts at UMBS, 2) a newly parameterized LANDIS-II model for UMBS (and representative of the broader northern lower Michigan region), 3) mapped datasets of beech bark disease, 4) modeled scenarios of forest succession under all combinations of natural succession, climate change, fire suppression, and pathogens, 5) graduate student theses, and 6) datasets shared in a new web-based database being built for all University forest properties.
Years Active: 
2019 to 2022
Research sites: 
Methods: 
1. Develop the needed input data to parameterize and run the LANDIS-II model, inclusive of new mapping of forest species-age cohorts using ecosystem maps and existing and new field data, plus mapping beech bark disease infested forests from remote sensing. This will require field data collection on age, on beech bark infestation, and on composition. Field sampling at UMBS will be mostly non-destructive, although small tree cores have been taken on ~300 trees. 2. Use the newly parameterized LANDIS-II model to predict changes in forest successional composition and biomass for multiple scenarios inclusive of combinations of two different climate change scenarios and different pathogen and fire regimes. 3. Produce graduate student theses: Hana Qoronfleh (climate change and succession scenarios and Landis model); Jared Barnett (beech bark disease, remote sensing and model). 4. Analyze results and communicate them within the university community (in courses, presentations) and more broadly (peer-reviewed publications, new grant proposals, and the forthcoming UM web-portal for our field properties datasets and results).
Funding agency: 
USFS McIntire-Stennis