Methods:
1. Develop the needed input data to parameterize and run the LANDIS-II model, inclusive of new mapping of forest species-age cohorts using ecosystem maps and existing and new field data, plus mapping beech bark disease infested forests from remote sensing. This will require field data collection on age, on beech bark infestation, and on composition. Field sampling at UMBS will be mostly non-destructive, although small tree cores have been taken on ~300 trees.
2. Use the newly parameterized LANDIS-II model to predict changes in forest successional composition and biomass for multiple scenarios inclusive of combinations of two different climate change scenarios and different pathogen and fire regimes.
3. Produce graduate student theses: Hana Qoronfleh (climate change and succession scenarios and Landis model); Jared Barnett (beech bark disease, remote sensing and model).
4. Analyze results and communicate them within the university community (in courses, presentations) and more broadly (peer-reviewed publications, new grant proposals, and the forthcoming UM web-portal for our field properties datasets and results).