Methods:
The overarching goal of this project is to identify effective surveying techniques to monitor the expansion of existing populations and the establishment of new populations of EFB. In this project, we will develop three different surveying strategies, and together with our CISMA partners, systematically survey according to the different strategies, and test their efficacy to detect EFB proliferation. The three surveying strategies include:
1) Simple: Based on distance to a known EFB occurrence in a simple GIS approach. If found effective, this simple strategy could be updated annually, by any CISMA with minimal GIS expertise.
2) Habitat Suitability Model (HSM): Funded by a 2017 MISGP grant, our team has developed a sophisticated habitat suitability model that maps the probability of occurrence for every wetland pixel, by incorporating known occurrences with geospatial layers that represent known drivers of EFB distribution.
3) Forecasting Model: This new project will allow us to adapt the HSM to a Forecasting Model that builds on the HSM, but can be updated annually to incorporate current water levels and emergent vegetation conditions, as well as new known occurrences from the previous year’s surveys.
We will design a surveying strategy based on the three different approaches above, and then we will work with our CISMA partners to collect data in target areas with the three different approaches. Once we have the presence-absence data from the field surveys, we will quantitatively compare the effectiveness of the different approaches for detecting EFB.
Funding agency:
Michigan Invasive Species Grant Program