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MISGP 2022-2025: Optimizing early detection of aquatic invasive species in Michigan

Project Abstract: 
In 1996, European frogbit was collected for the first time in Michigan, in Wayne County (D. Albert). In 2010, it was detected at one location in the Munuscong Wildlife Management Area along the St Marys River in Chippewa County. Since then, EFB has proliferated throughout Michigan via the expansion of existing populations, and the establishment of new populations. Currently, the surveying approach for EFB detection varies by weed management jurisdiction, and often opportunistically (e.g., ease of access, or active research areas) and it is unclear if current surveying approaches are effective at efficiently detecting EFB proliferation. Our CISMA partners have indicated that they would greatly appreciate guidance on efficient surveying strategies. The overarching goal of this project is to identify effective surveying techniques to monitor the expansion of existing populations and the establishment of new populations of EFB. In this project, we will develop three different surveying strategies, and together with our CISMA partners, systematically survey according to the different strategies, and test their efficacy to detect EFB proliferation. The three surveying strategies include: 1) Simple: Based on distance to a known EFB occurrence in a simple GIS approach. If found effective, this simple strategy could be updated annually, by any CISMA with minimal GIS expertise. 2) Habitat Suitability Model (HSM): Funded by a 2017 MISGP grant, our team has developed a sophisticated habitat suitability model that maps the probability of occurrence for every wetland pixel, by incorporating known occurrences with geospatial layers that represent known drivers of EFB distribution. 3) Forecasting Model: This new project will allow us to adapt the HSM to a Forecasting Model that builds on the HSM, but can be updated annually to incorporate current water levels and emergent vegetation conditions, as well as new known occurrences from the previous year’s surveys. We will design a surveying strategy based on the three different approaches above, and then we will work with our CISMA partners to collect data in target areas with the three different approaches. Once we have the presence-absence data from the field surveys, we will quantitatively compare the effectiveness of the different approaches for detecting EFB. The main outcome of this proposal is a systematic surveying design that is proven to be effective for EFB, and which can also be used to guide surveying for similar species of concern. Furthermore, the research framework that we develop for surveying EFB could be easily implemented to guide survey design for other non-similar species of concern.
Investigators: 
Status of Research Project: 
Years Active: 
2022 to 2025
Methods: 
The overarching goal of this project is to identify effective surveying techniques to monitor the expansion of existing populations and the establishment of new populations of EFB. In this project, we will develop three different surveying strategies, and together with our CISMA partners, systematically survey according to the different strategies, and test their efficacy to detect EFB proliferation. The three surveying strategies include: 1) Simple: Based on distance to a known EFB occurrence in a simple GIS approach. If found effective, this simple strategy could be updated annually, by any CISMA with minimal GIS expertise. 2) Habitat Suitability Model (HSM): Funded by a 2017 MISGP grant, our team has developed a sophisticated habitat suitability model that maps the probability of occurrence for every wetland pixel, by incorporating known occurrences with geospatial layers that represent known drivers of EFB distribution. 3) Forecasting Model: This new project will allow us to adapt the HSM to a Forecasting Model that builds on the HSM, but can be updated annually to incorporate current water levels and emergent vegetation conditions, as well as new known occurrences from the previous year’s surveys. We will design a surveying strategy based on the three different approaches above, and then we will work with our CISMA partners to collect data in target areas with the three different approaches. Once we have the presence-absence data from the field surveys, we will quantitatively compare the effectiveness of the different approaches for detecting EFB.
Funding agency: 
Michigan Invasive Species Grant Program